According to the final results announced by the country’s presidential election commission said that next month’s runoff will pit Mohammed Morsi of the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice party against Ahmed Shafiq, a law and order candidate and Mubarak’s last prime minister. Hani Shukrallah, the veteran al-Ahram, commentator, wrote: “Having stunned themselves and the world by staging a great revolution, at enormous sacrifice, many Egyptians felt they were back in square one, the very square which their despised deposed president used to taunt them for 30 years: ‘It’s me or the Muslim Brotherhood.'”
[May 26]Egypt’s Coptic Christians will rally round Shafiq because of their visceral dislike of Islamists. In addition to ordinary citizens, the diehards of the NDP, the families of police and military men, Copts are presumed to have had a big hand in pushing Shafiq to second place. Several semi-official figures put the number of Copts in Egypt at a range between 10 and 15 million. Any election would change completely if just five million — or even three million — Copts decided to turn out and cast their votes for a certain candidate, The irresponsibility of these revolutionary youth movements led the vast majority of citizens to seek shelter in a man with a strong personality and who can stand up to these anarchistic elements and contain Islamists. and for them former prime minister Shafiq was this man.”
Shafiq is half military and half civilian and by no means can be considered a feloul (a Mubarak regime remnant). The feloul are the remnants of Mubarak’s defunct ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and Shafiq was not a member of the NDP. “Shafiq is a statesman who can impose discipline and this is what many Egyptians liked about him.”
The dismal performance of Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist forces in parliament led many Egyptians to strongly believe that Shafiq could be a counterweight to them. “Egyptians saw how Islamists used their majority in parliament to tailor laws to serve their personal interests and political ends in the form of promoting for Mursi and launching hostile campaigns against Shafiq but these attacks played into Shafiq’s election campaign instead of harming it.
If you put the figures together it looks like Shafiq will win. But it is always a mistake to under-estimate the Brotherhood.